Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Astros- Taylor TrammellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fry homered to left center (355 feet).7–5
- 6Caratini homered to right center (395 feet).6–5
- 6Rocchio doubled to left, Naylor scored and Martínez scored.6–4
- 5Paredes homered to left (373 feet).4–4
- 5Trammell homered to left (368 feet), Caratini scored and Hummel scored.4–3
- 5Ramírez homered to left (380 feet), Naylor scored and Kwan scored.4–0
- 5Kwan reached on infield single to pitcher, Wilson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML CLE +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +69 Elo | HOU 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3020–25 | Road vs home | 32–142nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301484 | Elo rating | 15443rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–47 | 45–45 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 25–36 |
| Underdog | 30–24 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 38–50 | 38–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–10 HOU in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.