Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Casey MizePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Torkelson homered to right center (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- DET: Elo 55.2%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.5 – 4.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −11 | DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +37 Elo | DET 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.626th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 1st of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 20–2123rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15034th of 30 |
| 7th of 301532 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–42 | 40–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 32–27 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 29–23 |
| Overs–unders | 48–41 | 37–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 19–17 CLE in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 36.
- Jul 4DET 2 @ CLE 1Picked DET 53%Hit
- May 25CLE 0 @ DET 5Picked DET 73%Hit
- May 24CLE 7 @ DET 5Picked DET 57%Miss
- May 23CLE 3 @ DET 1Picked DET 52%Miss
- May 22CLE 7 @ DET 0Picked DET 52%Miss
- Oct 12DET 3 @ CLE 7PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 10CLE 5 @ DET 4PlayoffsPicked CLE 52%Hit
- Oct 9CLE 0 @ DET 3PlayoffsPicked CLE 51%Miss