Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Martínez homered to left (334 feet), Kwan scored, Ramírez scored and Santana scored.10–6
- 8Altuve singled to center, Trammell scored, Paredes to second.6–6
- 8Trammell doubled to right, Dubón scored.6–5
- 5Caratini hit sacrifice fly to center, Altuve scored.6–4
- 5Altuve doubled to left, Smith scored and Paredes scored.6–3
- 4Rocchio homered to right (393 feet).6–1
- 3Schneemann singled to right, Jones scored and Ramírez scored.5–1
- 3Jones doubled to right, Rocchio scored.3–1
- 1Altuve hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.2–1
- 1Ramírez homered to right (378 feet), Jones scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 64%
- ML CLE +170 / HOU -205
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.6%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- HOU -181
- CLE +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +17 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +82 Elo | HOU 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.62nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 18th of 3021–25 | Road vs home | 32–154th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301486 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 42–47 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 25–37 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 39–50 | 39–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–10 HOU in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.