Cleveland Guardians at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve doubled to left, Dubón scored.4–2
- 8Dubón doubled to center, Trammell scored.4–1
- 7Rodríguez singled to left, Ramírez scored and Santana scored, Fry to second.4–0
- 1Ramírez homered to left (362 feet).2–0
- 1Martínez homered to left (374 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 58%
- ML CLE +130 / HOU -155
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -140
- CLE +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −12 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Brandon Walter: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +51 Elo | HOU 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 16th of 3022–25 | Road vs home | 32–164th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301489 | Elo rating | 15396th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 43–47 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 25–38 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 40–50 | 40–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 6–10 HOU in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 16.