Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler AlexanderPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Santana homered to center (418 feet), Ramírez scored.4–2
- 2Robert Jr. homered to left (378 feet), Tauchman scored.2–2
- 2Martínez homered to right (355 feet).2–0
- 2Schneemann homered to right (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 52%
- ML CLE -120 / CHW +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -109
- CHW +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −17 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.86 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +72 Elo | CLE 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 15th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 20–2626th of 30 |
| 4th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Elo rating | 141229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 52–41 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–23 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 33–24 | 52–37 |
| Overs–unders | 40–51 | 42–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 16–13 CHW in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.