Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Kyle TeelBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez singled to right, Kwan scored, Jones to second.6–2
- 9Kwan singled to right, Martínez scored.5–2
- 7Kwan hit sacrifice fly to left, Hedges scored.4–2
- 6Manzardo homered to right (381 feet).3–2
- 4Teel singled to left, Benintendi scored and Sosa scored.2–2
- 4Martínez hit sacrifice fly to left, Santana scored, Schneemann to third.2–0
- 1Santana singled to right, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML CLE -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 59.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +63 Elo | CLE 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 21–2726th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301491 | Elo rating | 141229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 53–42 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–24 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 53–37 |
| Overs–unders | 41–52 | 43–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 17–14 CHW in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 31.