Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Kyle ManzardoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey CantilloPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Austin SlaterBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Kwan hit sacrifice fly to right, Martínez scored.6–5
- 8Robert Jr. doubled to left, Robertson scored, Benintendi to third.5–5
- 8Ramírez hit sacrifice fly to center, Kwan scored.5–4
- 6Benintendi homered to right (394 feet).4–4
- 6Manzardo homered to right center (418 feet), Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.4–3
- 6Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Rocchio scored, Jones out at second, Kwan to third.1–3
- 5Slater singled to center, Meidroth scored, Slater to second.0–3
- 5M. Taylor hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored.0–2
- 4Slater homered to left center (387 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML CLE -130 / CHW +110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.3%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- CHW +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 4.4 – 4.1 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −2 | CLE: Joey Cantillo: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +73 Elo | CLE 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 3.428th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.422nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 21–2826th of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 141029th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–48 | 53–43 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–24 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 34–24 | 53–38 |
| Overs–unders | 41–53 | 43–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 18–14 CHW in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 32.