Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Nathan LukesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rooker singled to left, Clarke scored.7–6
- 9Gelof scored on Hoffman wild pitch, Clarke to second on wild pitch by Hoffman.7–5
- 9Gelof scored on Hoffman wild pitch, Clarke to second on wild pitch by Hoffman.7–5
- 9Muncy homered to center (431 feet).7–4
- 6Soderstrom homered to center (417 feet).7–3
- 6Kurtz homered to center (433 feet), Rooker scored.7–2
- 5Lukes doubled to pitcher, Wagner scored and Clement scored, Straw to third.7–0
- 5Straw singled to right, Kirk scored, Clement to second, Wagner to third.5–0
- 5Kirk singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Barger scored.4–0
- 5Springer stole home, Guerrero Jr. stole second.2–0
- 5Springer stole home, Guerrero Jr. stole second.2–0
- 4Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Bichette scored, Kirk to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 62%
- ML TOR -180 / ATH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.0%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -161
- ATH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1442 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −27 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 1.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +85 Elo | TOR 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–23 | Road vs home | 18–3029th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15026th of 30 |
| 11th of 301516 | Elo rating | 144228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–38 | 47–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–22 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 38–34 |
| Overs–unders | 52–41 | 53–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 11–5 ATH in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.
