Atlanta Braves at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Eli WhiteBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesse ChavezPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 5White homered to left center (452 feet).1–10
- 3Butler homered to center (421 feet).0–10
- 2Kurtz homered to right center (403 feet), Clarke scored, Butler scored and Schuemann scored.0–9
- 1Muncy homered to left (416 feet), Kurtz scored.0–5
- 1Rooker homered to left (390 feet), Schuemann scored.0–3
- 1Butler homered inside-the-park to center (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATH 50%
- ML ATL -110 / ATH -110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATH 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- ATH: Elo 44.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- ATH -100
- ATL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.3 – 5.3 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1440 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +9 | ATL: Didier Fuentes: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATH 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 9th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–28 | Road vs home | 16–2929th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15027th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 144028th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–52 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 26–42 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 11–10 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders | 36–53 | 51–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–3 ATH in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.
