Atlanta Braves at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting2-4
- Mitch SpencePitching6.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Profar doubled to left, Olson scored.9–2
- 6Urshela singled to center, Soderstrom scored, Muncy to second.8–2
- 6Ozuna homered to center (412 feet).8–1
- 5Butler grounded out to first, Gelof scored, Clarke to third.7–1
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to right center (378 feet).7–0
- 2Riley homered to left center (408 feet), Olson scored.6–0
- 1Baldwin homered to center (431 feet), Olson scored and Riley scored.4–0
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left (433 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / ATH +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- ATH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +13 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +21 Elo | ATL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 3015–29 | Road vs home | 17–2929th of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 144428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 37–53 | 46–47 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–42 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 37–33 |
| Overs–unders | 37–53 | 52–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 3–4 ATH in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.
