Atlanta Braves at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Jurickson ProfarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Athletics- Tyler SoderstromBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Soderstrom singled to center, Rooker scored, Andujar to second.4–5
- 8Kurtz homered to left (358 feet).4–4
- 7Albies homered to right center (392 feet).4–3
- 4Profar homered to left (352 feet), Murphy scored.3–3
- 4Murphy doubled to left, Riley scored.1–3
- 1Soderstrom homered to right center (445 feet), Rooker scored and Kurtz scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 64%
- ML ATL -200 / ATH +165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 59.3%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -177
- ATH +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.9 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | 0 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +65 Elo | ATL 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.529th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 27th of 3016–29 | Road vs home | 17–3029th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 144128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–53 | 46–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 27–42 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 37–34 |
| Overs–unders | 38–53 | 53–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–4 ATH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
