Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Shea LangeliersBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching8.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Andujar doubled to left, Langeliers scored.6–8
- 9Langeliers doubled to right, Rooker scored.5–8
- 9Rooker tripled to right, Kurtz scored.4–8
- 7Langeliers homered to left center (408 feet).3–8
- 6Kurtz reached on infield single to third, Clarke scored.2–8
- 5Jones singled to left, Ramírez scored, Jones to second.1–8
- 5Rooker homered to left (393 feet).1–7
- 4Rocchio doubled to center, Naylor scored and Wilson scored.0–7
- 3Santana hit sacrifice fly to left, Ramírez scored.0–5
- 3Fry homered to left center (387 feet), Martínez scored.0–4
- 3Martínez singled to center, Rocchio scored.0–2
- 2Rodríguez homered to left center (402 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 54%
- ML ATH +110 / CLE -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 60.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +7 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +72 Elo | CLE 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 20th of 3021–26 | Road vs home | 20–2325th of 30 |
| 5th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 149321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 46–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 41–34 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 54–44 | 42–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 3–13 CLE in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 16.
