Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching6.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Barger homered to right center (448 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.3–6
- 5Kurtz homered to left center (388 feet), Wilson scored.1–6
- 5Schneider homered to left center (439 feet).1–4
- 3Soderstrom homered to center (410 feet), Kurtz scored.0–4
- 2Wynns homered to left (387 feet), Urshela scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -130 / ATH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- ATH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.4 – 5.1 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1443 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +14 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +42 Elo | TOR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.629th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 19–3129th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 144328th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–40 | 49–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 40–34 |
| Overs–unders | 53–42 | 54–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–6 ATH in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 18.
