Toronto Blue Jays at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Leo JimenezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to third.3–4
- 5Rooker homered to left center (389 feet), Kurtz scored.2–4
- 3Rooker doubled to right, Butler scored, Kurtz to third.2–2
- 3Butler singled to right, Clarke scored.2–1
- 3Bichette doubled to center, Clement scored.2–0
- 2Jiménez homered to left center (402 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML TOR -150 / ATH +125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 5.6 – 4.9 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1441 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +10 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +52 Elo | TOR 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 18–3129th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15035th of 30 |
| 12th of 301517 | Elo rating | 144128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–39 | 48–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–23 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 39–34 |
| Overs–unders | 53–41 | 54–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–5 ATH in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.
