Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Astros- Zack ShortBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Semien homered to left (357 feet).5–1
- 6Short homered to left (391 feet).4–1
- 4Osuna hit sacrifice fly to right, Carter scored.4–0
- 3A. García homered to left (381 feet).3–0
- 2Duran hit a ground rule double, Carter scored.2–0
- 2Carter tripled to right, Langford scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML TEX +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 56.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.1 – 3.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +45 Elo | HOU 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–30 | Road vs home | 33–187th of 30 |
| 30th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 19th of 301502 | Elo rating | 15356th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–48 | 45–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 25–41 |
| Underdog | 27–19 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 38–58 | 42–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 17–22 HOU in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 39.