Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Schanuel singled to left, Neto scored.8–11
- 8Soler homered to left (421 feet), Moncada scored.8–10
- 7Ward singled to right, Rengifo scored and Neto scored.8–8
- 7Semien homered to left center (423 feet), Seager scored.8–6
- 6Higashioka singled to center, Langford scored.6–6
- 5Trout homered to right center (378 feet).5–6
- 4d'Arnaud homered to center (397 feet).5–5
- 4Smith doubled to right, Burger scored.5–4
- 4Burger grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Langford scored, Burger safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Hendricks.4–4
- 3Adell doubled to center, Ward scored.3–4
- 3Trout homered to center (426 feet), Rengifo scored.3–3
- 3Schanuel hit sacrifice fly to center, d'Arnaud scored.3–1
- 3Semien hit sacrifice fly to left, Smith scored.3–0
- 3Higashioka homered to left (358 feet).2–0
- 1Semien grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML TEX -110 / LAA -110
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 47.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- TEX -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · LAA: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +17 Elo | TEX 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–28 | Road vs home | 21–2121st of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Elo rating | 145727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–47 | 48–43 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 41–26 |
| Overs–unders | 34–58 | 48–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–11 LAA in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 31.