Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Angels- Travis d'ArnaudBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel walked, Rengifo scored, Neto to second, Newman to third.5–6
- 8Smith doubled to right, Burger scored.5–5
- 6Wade Jr. singled to center, d'Arnaud scored, Wade Jr. thrown out at second.4–5
- 6d'Arnaud doubled to left, Rengifo scored.4–4
- 3Heim reached on infield single to shortstop, Seager scored, A. García to second.4–3
- 3A. García singled to right, Haggerty scored, Seager to third.3–3
- 2d'Arnaud homered to left (370 feet), Soler scored.2–3
- 1Trout hit sacrifice fly to left, Neto scored.2–1
- 1Seager homered to center (430 feet), Haggerty scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML TEX -145 / LAA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 56.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TEX -130
- LAA +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.0 – 3.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −4 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 1.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +47 Elo | TEX 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.623rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 25th of 3018–27 | Road vs home | 20–2021st of 30 |
| 27th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–46 | 47–42 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–27 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 40–26 |
| Overs–unders | 32–58 | 46–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 19–10 LAA in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 29.