Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Langford homered to left (437 feet), A. García scored.13–1
- 7Burger homered to left center (434 feet).11–1
- 6Seager homered to right center (427 feet).10–1
- 5Higashioka singled to left, Carter scored, Burger to second.9–1
- 5Burger singled to right, A. García scored and Heim scored, Carter to third.8–1
- 5Carter walked, Semien scored, Heim to second, A. García to third.6–1
- 4Burger singled to right, Carter scored.5–1
- 4Carter hit a ground rule double, Heim scored and Langford scored.4–1
- 4Langford doubled to left, Seager scored and Semien scored, Heim to third.2–1
- 1Schanuel singled to right, Neto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML TEX -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- LAA: Elo 46.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.2 – 4.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +27 Elo | TEX 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 26th of 3018–28 | Road vs home | 21–2021st of 30 |
| 28th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 19th of 301495 | Elo rating | 146026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–47 | 48–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 7–16 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 41–26 |
| Overs–unders | 33–58 | 47–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 19–11 LAA in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 30.