Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Langford homered to left (392 feet), Seager scored.7–3
- 4Caratini homered to right (339 feet), Walker scored.5–3
- 3Heim doubled to right, Burger scored and Carter scored, Heim out stretching at third.5–1
- 3A. García homered to center (425 feet).3–1
- 1Walker grounded out to second, Paredes scored, Smith to third.2–1
- 1Carter singled to right, Seager scored and Semien scored, Langford to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML TEX +110 / HOU -130
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 59.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- TEX +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | −9 | TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.85 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +64 Elo | HOU 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 25th of 3020–29 | Road vs home | 32–176th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 19th of 301500 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–48 | 45–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 25–39 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 36–58 | 40–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 16–21 HOU in their last 37 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 37.