Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson FulmerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto homered to left center (424 feet).11–4
- 8A. García homered to center (405 feet), Semien scored.11–3
- 6Wade Jr. singled to left, Soler scored, Moncada to second.9–3
- 5Ward homered to left center (407 feet), Neto scored.9–2
- 3Semien singled to center, Smith scored, Seager to third.9–0
- 3Seager singled to center, Burger scored and Osuna scored, Smith to third.8–0
- 3Burger doubled to left, Carter scored.6–0
- 3Langford scored on a balk, Carter to second on a balk.5–0
- 3Langford scored on a balk, Carter to second on a balk.5–0
- 3Carter singled to center, A. García scored, Langford to third.4–0
- 3Langford singled to left, Semien scored, A. García to second.3–0
- 1Heim singled to left, Semien scored, A. García to third.2–0
- 1A. García singled to right, Seager scored, Semien to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML TEX -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1459 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | 0 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +10 Elo | TEX 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 25th of 3019–29 | Road vs home | 22–2121st of 30 |
| 29th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 145926th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–48 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 42–26 |
| Overs–unders | 35–58 | 49–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 20–12 LAA in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 32.