Texas Rangers at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Marcus SemienBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 11Short singled to right, Smith scored, Corona to second.4–5
- 11Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Paredes scored.4–4
- 11A. García singled to left, Semien scored, A. García to second.4–3
- 9Higashioka homered to left center (347 feet).3–3
- 8Semien homered to left center (401 feet).2–3
- 7Dubón homered to left (364 feet).1–3
- 4Diaz homered to left (410 feet).1–2
- 1Altuve homered to left center (407 feet).1–1
- 1Haggerty scored on Valdez wild pitch, A. García to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Semien to third on wild pitch by Valdez.1–0
- 1Haggerty scored on Valdez wild pitch, A. García to second on wild pitch by Valdez, Semien to third on wild pitch by Valdez.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML TEX +100 / HOU -120
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 57.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -109
- TEX +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.2 – 3.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +19 | TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.92 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +51 Elo | HOU 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–29 | Road vs home | 32–188th of 30 |
| 30th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 18th of 301503 | Elo rating | 15346th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 45–49 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–29 | 25–40 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 20–9 |
| Overs–unders | 37–58 | 41–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 17–21 HOU in their last 38 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 38.