Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting3-4
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4
- Jacob LatzPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Vierling singled to center, Torres scored, Greene to third.2–1
- 7A. García scored on Holton wild pitch, Higashioka to third.1–1
- 7A. García scored on Holton wild pitch, Higashioka to third on wild pitch by Holton.1–1
- 2McKinstry singled to right, Pérez scored, McKinstry to second, Dingler to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 62%
- ML DET -180 / TEX +150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.7 pts
- DET: Elo 50.9%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -161
- TEX +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 2.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob Latz: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +6 Elo | DET 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 64.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–22 | Road vs home | 28–1912th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149428th of 30 |
| 10th of 301522 | Elo rating | 150915th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 51–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–32 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 16–17 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 53–46 | 38–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–12 TEX in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 19.