Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Rowdy TellezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene homered to right center (387 feet).1–4
- 5Seager singled to right, Osuna scored, Smith to second.0–4
- 2Tellez homered to right center (432 feet), A. García scored and Langford scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML DET +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 45.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- DET +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | −12 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +32 Elo | DET 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| DET | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 1st of 3027–21 | Road vs home | 27–1913th of 30 |
| 29th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149430th of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 150617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 50–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 34–32 | 22–29 |
| Underdog | 16–16 | 28–19 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45 | 38–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–11 TEX in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.