Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Raleigh homered to left (405 feet), Williamson scored, Crawford scored and Rodríguez scored.12–3
- 9Crawford grounded into fielder's choice to second, Raley scored on error and Solano scored on fielding error by second baseman Torres, Williamson safe at third on error.8–3
- 9Williamson singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored, Raley to second, Solano to third.6–3
- 8Raleigh homered to left center (383 feet).5–3
- 6Torkelson hit sacrifice fly to left, Greene scored.4–3
- 6Greene tripled to center, Pérez scored.4–2
- 5Rodríguez homered to left center (440 feet), Crawford scored.4–1
- 5Crawford singled to left, Solano scored.2–1
- 4McKinstry singled to right, Torres scored, Pérez to third.1–1
- 2Solano tripled to right, Polanco scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- DET 71%
- ML SEA +230 / DET -285
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.7 pts
- DET: Elo 58.2%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -244
- SEA +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 2.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +25 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 1.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +58 Elo | DET 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 65.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 64.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 32–153rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15367th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–54 | 50–44 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 34–29 |
| Underdog | 23–15 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 52–41 | 50–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 5–10 DET in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 15.