Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Will WarrenPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh homered to right (394 feet), Rodríguez scored.3–10
- 8Rodríguez doubled to center, Crawford scored.1–10
- 7Goldschmidt singled to center, Stanton scored and Chisholm Jr. scored.0–10
- 7Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Bellinger scored, Stanton to third.0–8
- 7Judge homered to right (345 feet).0–7
- 6Wells homered to right center (414 feet), Goldschmidt scored.0–6
- 6Stanton homered to right center (401 feet), Judge scored and Bellinger scored.0–4
- 5Goldschmidt scored on error, Peraza safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Young, Volpe to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 53%
- ML SEA +105 / NYY -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 53.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -114
- SEA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.1 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −11 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Will Warren: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +26 Elo | NYY 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 26–1710th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15386th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–52 | 42–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 35–45 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 49–41 | 39–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–10 NYY in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.