Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Keith homered to right (394 feet), McKinstry scored.2–4
- 5Keith singled to left, McKinstry scored, Vierling thrown out at third.2–2
- 4Torkelson homered to left center (366 feet).2–1
- 3J. Lowe singled to right, Aranda scored.2–0
- 1Aranda homered to right (375 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 53%
- ML TB +105 / DET -125
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- DET: Elo 52.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -114
- TB +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.6 – 3.9 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −26 | TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +17 Elo | DET 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–17 | Road vs home | 31–142nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149130th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15376th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–43 | 49–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 19–32 | 33–28 |
| Underdog | 29–11 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–52 | 49–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–8 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 16.