Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Jorge PolancoBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Judge hit sacrifice fly to center, Volpe scored.5–6
- 9Wells singled to right, Bellinger scored and Grisham scored, Rice to second.5–5
- 8Stanton homered to center (415 feet), Rice scored.5–3
- 8Wells hit sacrifice fly to left, Chisholm Jr. scored.5–1
- 7Polanco homered to right (366 feet), Crawford scored and Arozarena scored.5–0
- 4Mastrobuoni singled to right, Canzone scored.2–0
- 2Young singled to left, Raley scored, Canzone to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 52%
- ML SEA -120 / NYY -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.6%, market 51.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -106
- NYY +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −16 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.73 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +17 Elo | NYY 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.114th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 28–179th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 13th of 301512 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–54 | 44–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 37–45 |
| Underdog | 22–15 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 51–41 | 41–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 10–0 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–12 NYY in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.