Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Yankees- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Young homered to right center (362 feet), Williamson scored.6–9
- 6Judge doubled to left, Domínguez scored and Peraza scored.4–9
- 6Domínguez singled to right, Wells scored, Peraza to third.4–7
- 6Arozarena homered to right (349 feet), Rodríguez scored.4–6
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (364 feet), Bellinger scored.2–6
- 4Polanco homered to right (417 feet).2–4
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to center (418 feet).1–4
- 3Crawford homered to right (344 feet).1–3
- 1Chisholm Jr. grounded out to second, Bellinger scored, Stanton to second.0–3
- 1Stanton singled to right, Judge scored, Bellinger to third.0–2
- 1Bellinger singled to right, Domínguez scored, Judge to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 58%
- ML SEA +130 / NYY -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.2 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.1%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -140
- SEA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 5.1 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −4 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYY: Cam Schlittler (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +50 Elo | NYY 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.13rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 27–1710th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 12th of 301514 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–53 | 43–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 36–45 |
| Underdog | 22–14 | 7–3 |
| Overs–unders | 50–41 | 40–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–11 NYY in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 17.