Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Junior CamineroBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Tigers- Zach McKinstryBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Caminero homered to left (398 feet).7–3
- 6Díaz singled to center, Jansen scored.6–3
- 6Jansen doubled to left, Walls scored.5–3
- 6Walls singled to left, Kim scored, Walls to second.4–3
- 6Kim doubled to center, Mangum scored.3–3
- 4Meadows grounded into fielder's choice to first, Torkelson scored, Vierling out at second, McKinstry to third.2–3
- 4McKinstry doubled to right, Pérez scored, Torkelson to third.2–2
- 4Torkelson singled to left, Torres scored, Pérez to third.2–1
- 1Mangum singled to left, Caminero scored.2–0
- 1J. Lowe grounded out to first, Aranda scored, Caminero to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML TB +125 / DET -150
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DET: Elo 55.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -135
- TB +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.9 – 4.6 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +7 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +40 Elo | DET 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3021–18 | Road vs home | 32–142nd of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 9th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15397th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–44 | 50–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–32 | 34–28 |
| Underdog | 29–12 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 39–53 | 49–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 8–9 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 17.