Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Casey MizePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford doubled to right, Moore scored, Young scored and Williamson scored.15–7
- 9Williamson singled to left, Raley scored, Moore to second.12–7
- 8McKinstry homered to right (363 feet), Torkelson scored.11–7
- 8Arozarena homered to left center (431 feet), Rodríguez scored.11–5
- 7Pérez singled to center, Torres scored.9–5
- 7Williamson singled to center, Arozarena scored, Canzone to second.9–4
- 6Rodríguez homered to left (427 feet).8–4
- 5Greene homered to left (356 feet), Keith scored and Pérez scored.7–4
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Williamson scored, Young to second.7–1
- 3Raley homered to right center (388 feet), Arozarena scored and Polanco scored.6–1
- 3Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to right, Rodríguez scored.3–1
- 3Crawford singled to left, Young scored.2–1
- 2Canzone singled to center, Arozarena scored.1–1
- 1Greene hit sacrifice fly to left, Keith scored, Torres to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 50%
- ML SEA -110 / DET -110
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- DET: Elo 53.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- SEA -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.8 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −1 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Casey Mize: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +26 Elo | DET 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +1.03rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 32–163rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149329th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15327th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–54 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 34–30 |
| Underdog | 24–15 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 53–41 | 51–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 6–10 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 16.