Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Tigers- Riley GreeneBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez scored on throwing error by catcher Dingler, Raleigh stole third.8–4
- 9Rodríguez scored on throwing error by catcher Dingler, Raleigh stole third.8–4
- 9Rodríguez doubled to left, Crawford scored.7–4
- 9Young homered to right (402 feet).6–4
- 9Polanco homered to right (401 feet).5–4
- 8Arozarena doubled to left, Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.4–4
- 7Greene homered to right (386 feet).3–4
- 7Torres hit sacrifice fly to center, Báez scored.3–3
- 7Garver homered to left center (398 feet).3–2
- 4Arozarena homered to left (405 feet).2–2
- 3Rodríguez homered to right (363 feet).1–2
- 1Dingler doubled to left, Torkelson scored and Torres scored, Dingler to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / DET -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- DET +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.3 – 4.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −22 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +14 Elo | DET 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 32–175th of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 11th of 301519 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 41–54 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 16–39 | 34–31 |
| Underdog | 25–15 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders | 54–41 | 52–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 7–10 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 17.