Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Michael HelmanBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager singled to left, Jung scored.2–7
- 7Helman hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Smith scored, Jung to second.2–6
- 6Kurtz homered to left (378 feet).2–5
- 5Helman homered to left (407 feet), Jung scored and Freeman scored.1–5
- 5Freeman doubled to center, Smith scored, Jung to third.1–2
- 4Soderstrom singled to right, Kurtz scored, Langeliers to third.1–1
- 3Jung homered to left center (385 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML ATH +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 58.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- ATH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.2 – 4.3 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1445 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −13 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +57 Elo | TEX 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 28–2013th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 28th of 301445 | Elo rating | 150816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–50 | 52–48 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 23–29 |
| Underdog | 42–36 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 57–44 | 38–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 15–18 TEX in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.
