Athletics at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Nick KurtzBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Angel MartinezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Martínez singled to center, Schneemann scored, Hedges to second.2–8
- 8Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to center, Jones scored, Schneemann to third.2–7
- 8Kurtz doubled to right, Clarke scored.2–6
- 7Martínez homered to right center (385 feet).1–6
- 5Soderstrom scored on Williams wild pitch, Schuemann to second on wild pitch by Williams.1–5
- 5Soderstrom scored on Williams wild pitch, Schuemann to second on wild pitch by Williams.1–5
- 4Fry doubled to left, Rocchio scored, Wilson scored and Hedges scored.0–5
- 2Hedges singled to left, Wilson scored.0–2
- 1Fry singled to left, Martínez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 50%
- ML ATH -110 / CLE -110
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 55.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -100
- ATH -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.8 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1447 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +38 Elo | CLE 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.726th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.216th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −0.522nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 19th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 21–2425th of 30 |
| 4th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 27th of 301447 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 13–26 |
| Underdog | 42–35 | 34–24 |
| Overs–unders | 56–44 | 44–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 4–14 CLE in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.