Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Luis UriasBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Astros- Taylor TrammellBatting3-4
- Jason AlexanderPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Smith grounded out to third, Caratini scored.5–2
- 7Walker hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored, Caratini to third.5–1
- 6Urías homered to left center (367 feet).5–0
- 5Langeliers hit sacrifice fly to center, Rooker scored.4–0
- 4Kurtz doubled to right, Urshela scored, Schuemann thrown out at home.3–0
- 4Schuemann grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Cortes scored, Urías out at second, Urshela to third.2–0
- 2Cortes hit sacrifice fly to center, Butler scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML ATH +125 / HOU -150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 68.3%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -135
- ATH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.9 – 4.6 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1440 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | −2 | ATH: Luis Severino: team allows 1.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Jason Alexander: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +133 Elo | HOU 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.65th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–31 | Road vs home | 33–195th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 28th of 301440 | Elo rating | 15375th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–52 | 50–52 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 26–42 |
| Underdog | 43–38 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 59–45 | 45–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 10–22 HOU in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 32.
