Houston Astros at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Brice MatthewsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Matthews homered to left center (423 feet), McCormick scored.6–3
- 5Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored.4–3
- 3Suárez homered to left (378 feet).4–2
- 3Walker doubled to right, Caratini scored.4–1
- 2Matthews homered to left center (397 feet), Trammell scored and Dubón scored.3–1
- 1Carroll singled to right, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML HOU +125 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- ARI: Elo 50.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.56 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +5 Elo | ARI 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 6th of 3024–23 | Road vs home | 26–2522nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 151912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–52 | 53–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 27–33 |
| Underdog | 22–10 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 44–55 | 55–45 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–1 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.