St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker doubled to left, Winn scored.3–5
- 5Donovan grounded out to first, Pozo scored, Scott II to second, Walker to third.2–5
- 3Suárez homered to left (369 feet).1–5
- 3Herrera singled to left, Scott II scored.1–4
- 1Suárez homered to left (425 feet), Perdomo scored and Naylor scored.0–4
- 1Perdomo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML STL +125 / ARI -150
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- ARI: Elo 57.8%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -135
- STL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +10 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +55 Elo | ARI 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.24th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3022–28 | Road vs home | 25–2522nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Elo rating | 151813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 52–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–30 | 26–33 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 26–14 |
| Overs–unders | 55–44 | 55–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–8 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.