Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Angels- Zach NetoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9d'Arnaud singled to left, O'Hoppe scored, Rengifo to second.5–6
- 8Grichuk homered to center (411 feet).5–5
- 5Rengifo doubled to right, O'Hoppe scored.4–5
- 2Herrera singled to left, Thomas scored.4–4
- 2Thomas doubled to left, Alexander scored.3–4
- 2Grichuk homered to left center (430 feet), Naylor scored.2–4
- 1Moncada homered to right center (405 feet), Trout scored.0–4
- 1Ward hit sacrifice fly to left, Schanuel scored.0–2
- 1Neto homered to left center (447 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 50%
- ML ARI -115 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- LAA: Elo 42.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- LAA -100
- ARI -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.8 – 4.8 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +7 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +54 Elo | ARI 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 22–2221st of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 13th of 301515 | Elo rating | 145626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–46 | 49–44 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–33 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 42–26 |
| Overs–unders | 51–43 | 50–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–2 LAA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.