St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Victor Scott IIBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Scott II homered to right (421 feet), Pagés scored.3–7
- 9Pagés singled to center, Winn scored.1–7
- 7Del Castillo grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Gurriel Jr. scored, Suárez out at second, Naylor to third.0–7
- 5Alexander doubled to right, Del Castillo scored.0–6
- 3Thomas grounded out to shortstop, Suárez scored, Del Castillo to second.0–5
- 3Del Castillo singled to center, Naylor scored, Suárez to third.0–4
- 2Perdomo singled to center, Herrera scored and Thomas scored, Carroll to third.0–3
- 2Herrera singled to right, Del Castillo scored, Thomas to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML STL -105 / ARI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +19 Elo | ARI 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.119th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–26 | Road vs home | 23–2523rd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 18th of 301504 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–47 | 50–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 25–33 |
| Underdog | 31–18 | 25–14 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44 | 53–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–6 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.