Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Davis DanielPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Jose FerminBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching3.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Harris II scored on error, Profar safe at first on error by pitcher Graceffo.4–5
- 6Fermín homered to left (367 feet), Winn scored.3–5
- 5Contreras doubled to right, Burleson scored and Scott II scored.3–3
- 5Olson singled to left, Harris II scored and Profar scored.3–1
- 3Olson singled to right, Allen scored, Profar to third.1–1
- 2Scott II reached on infield single to second, Winn scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML ATL +140 / STL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- STL: Elo 53.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- STL -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +11 | ATL: Davis Daniel: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +22 Elo | STL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.421st of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 27th of 3018–30 | Road vs home | 28–2013th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 150318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 40–54 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 19–28 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 40–54 | 52–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 10–7 STL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.