Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting3-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 3Scott II singled to right, Gorman scored, Pagés to second.6–5
- 3Pagés singled to center, Burleson scored and Nootbaar scored, Gorman to third.6–4
- 3Baldwin singled to center, Profar scored.6–2
- 3Murphy homered to center (440 feet).5–2
- 2Acuña Jr. reached on infield single to shortstop, Harris II scored.4–2
- 1Contreras singled to left, Burleson scored.3–2
- 1Burleson doubled to right, Donovan scored.3–1
- 1Murphy homered to left center (437 feet), Riley scored.3–0
- 1Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML ATL +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- STL: Elo 52.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +15 Elo | STL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 27th of 3016–30 | Road vs home | 28–1811th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301509 | Elo rating | 150516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 38–54 | 50–44 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 19–26 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 38–54 | 50–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–7 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 15.