Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Sean MurphyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Erick FeddePitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar grounded out to second, Alvarez Jr. scored, Williams to second.7–6
- 8Hampson scored on Hernández wild pitch, Saggese to second on wild pitch by Hernández, Fermín to third on wild pitch by Hernández.6–6
- 8Hampson scored on Hernández wild pitch, Saggese to second on wild pitch by Hernández, Fermín to third on wild pitch by Hernández.6–6
- 8Murphy homered to left (372 feet), Profar scored and Acuña Jr. scored.6–5
- 7Donovan singled to right, Gorman scored.3–5
- 6Pozo homered to left center (406 feet).3–4
- 2Gorman homered to right center (423 feet), Saggese scored.3–3
- 2Saggese singled to right, Pozo scored.3–1
- 2Harris II grounded out to second, Albies scored, Alvarez Jr. to second.3–0
- 2Ozuna homered to left center (422 feet).2–0
- 1Acuña Jr. homered to left center (379 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 51%
- ML ATL -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 48.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.8 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −14 | ATL: Aaron Bummer: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · STL: Erick Fedde: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +13 Elo | STL 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.612th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 27th of 3017–30 | Road vs home | 28–1913th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15063rd of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 150417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 39–54 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 27–43 | 19–27 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 31–18 |
| Overs–unders | 39–54 | 51–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 9–7 STL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 16.