Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Trout singled to right, Neto scored and d'Arnaud scored, Schanuel to second.5–10
- 8Schanuel singled to right, Wade Jr. scored, Neto to second, d'Arnaud to third.5–8
- 8Neto singled to right, Moncada scored, d'Arnaud to second, Wade Jr. to third.5–7
- 8Thomas walked, Suárez scored, McCann to second, Naylor to third.5–6
- 8McCann reached on infield single to shortstop, Carroll scored, Naylor to second, Suárez to third.4–6
- 6Grichuk singled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored, Grichuk to second, Naylor to third.3–6
- 5Trout homered to right center (373 feet), Schanuel scored.2–6
- 4Rengifo singled to center, d'Arnaud scored.2–4
- 4Soler hit sacrifice fly to right, Adell scored.2–3
- 4Adell doubled to right, Ward scored.2–2
- 4Suárez homered to right center (388 feet).2–1
- 2Suárez homered to center (434 feet).1–1
- 1Ward grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Neto scored, Trout out at second, Schanuel to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML ARI +110 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- LAA: Elo 44.2%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.1 – 4.4 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1457 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −4 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +40 Elo | ARI 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 18th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 23–2221st of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15028th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 145726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–46 | 49–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–33 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 42–26 |
| Overs–unders | 52–43 | 51–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–3 LAA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.