Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Suárez doubled to right, Perdomo scored.5–1
- 4Herrera doubled to left, Alexander scored and Suárez scored.4–1
- 4Alexander doubled to left, Naylor scored, Suárez to third.2–1
- 4Suárez grounded into fielder's choice to third, Perdomo scored on error, Naylor to second.1–1
- 3Trout singled to left, Neto scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 54%
- ML ARI +110 / LAA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- LAA: Elo 42.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.6 – 4.9 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −11 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +50 Elo | ARI 57.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 19th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.625th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 24–2220th of 30 |
| 17th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 14th of 301510 | Elo rating | 146026th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–47 | 50–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–33 | 8–19 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 42–26 |
| Overs–unders | 53–43 | 52–43 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 4–4 LAA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.