St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Perdomo grounded out to shortstop, Alexander scored, Carroll to third.1–10
- 6Burleson homered to right (443 feet).1–9
- 4Del Castillo doubled to right, Perdomo scored, Suárez to third.0–9
- 4Perdomo singled to right, Carroll scored.0–8
- 4Carroll tripled to right, Alexander scored.0–7
- 3Suárez homered to right center (390 feet).0–6
- 2Perdomo singled to center, Alexander scored.0–5
- 2Alexander singled to center, Thomas scored.0–4
- 1Suárez homered to left (403 feet), Naylor scored.0–3
- 1Perdomo singled to center, Carroll scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML STL -135 / ARI +115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- STL: Elo 44.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +15 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +37 Elo | ARI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.025th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.118th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 18th of 3022–27 | Road vs home | 24–2522nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 18th of 301502 | Elo rating | 151514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 51–47 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 26–33 |
| Underdog | 31–19 | 25–14 |
| Overs–unders | 54–44 | 54–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–7 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.