Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Raleigh scored on Neris wild pitch, Arozarena to third on wild pitch by Neris.1–6
- 8Raleigh scored on Neris wild pitch, Arozarena to third on wild pitch by Neris.1–6
- 8Solano hit sacrifice fly to left, Rodríguez scored, Arozarena to second, Raleigh to third.1–5
- 8Raleigh singled to right, Crawford scored, Rodríguez to third.1–4
- 8Crawford singled to left, Young scored.1–3
- 8Paredes doubled to center, Matthews scored.1–2
- 7Garver homered to center (420 feet).0–2
- 4Arozarena homered to left center (445 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML HOU +120 / SEA -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.0%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SEA -134
- HOU +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.4 – 4.1 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +9 | HOU: Brandon Walter: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +28 Elo | SEA 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3023–21 | Road vs home | 25–2117th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Elo rating | 152111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–51 | 42–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 16–39 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–54 | 55–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–20 SEA in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 33.