Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching2.2 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Young singled to right, Canzone scored.6–7
- 10Moore grounded out to pitcher, Raleigh scored, Arozarena to third.6–6
- 10Trammell hit sacrifice fly to center, McCormick scored.6–5
- 8Arozarena scored on Abreu wild pitch, Moore to third on wild pitch by Abreu.5–5
- 8Arozarena scored on Abreu wild pitch, Moore to third on wild pitch by Abreu.5–5
- 6Walker singled to right, Altuve scored, Caratini to third.5–4
- 6Caratini singled to center, Short scored, Altuve to second.4–4
- 6Altuve singled to left, Matthews scored, Short to third.3–4
- 5Walker singled to right, Altuve scored.2–4
- 3Canzone doubled to center, Polanco scored and Raley scored.1–4
- 3Raley singled to right, Arozarena scored, Polanco to third.1–2
- 3Smith singled to center, Short scored, Caratini to second.1–1
- 2Williamson grounded out to pitcher, Polanco scored, Canzone to second, Raley to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML HOU +120 / SEA -145
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- SEA: Elo 51.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- SEA -130
- HOU +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −18 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +7 Elo | SEA 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 26–2117th of 30 |
| 26th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 6th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15248th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–52 | 43–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 17–39 |
| Underdog | 20–10 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 42–55 | 55–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–21 SEA in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 34.