Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Taylor TrammellBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caratini doubled to center, Altuve scored and McCormick scored.11–3
- 7Trammell doubled to center, Walker scored and Caratini scored.9–3
- 7Diaz hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored.7–3
- 7Caratini singled to center, Whitcomb scored, Altuve to third.6–3
- 6Trammell homered to right center (384 feet).5–3
- 6Walker homered to left (400 feet).4–3
- 5Smith doubled to right, Whitcomb scored and Hummel scored.3–3
- 5Trammell scored on error, Whitcomb safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Crawford, Hummel safe at second on error.1–3
- 4Rodríguez singled to center, Garver scored, Mastrobuoni to third.0–3
- 3Polanco singled to right, Mastrobuoni scored and Rodríguez scored, Raleigh to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 55%
- ML HOU +115 / SEA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.0 – 3.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +9 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3023–23 | Road vs home | 27–2116th of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 6th of 301529 | Elo rating | 15257th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–52 | 43–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 25–42 | 17–40 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 26–15 |
| Overs–unders | 43–55 | 56–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 13–22 SEA in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 35.