Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting2-4
- JP SearsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Corey SeagerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Heim doubled to shortstop, Langford scored.1–2
- 6Kurtz doubled to right, Rooker scored.1–1
- 3Seager homered to center (434 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 57%
- ML ATH +120 / TEX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 62.6%, market 56.9%
- Fair odds
- TEX -132
- ATH +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.9 – 4.6 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −2 | ATH: JP Sears: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +90 Elo | TEX 62.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 56.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.7 | Runs allowed | 3.51st of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.69th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 3022–30 | Road vs home | 30–2012th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149330th of 30 |
| 28th of 301441 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–52 | 54–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 25–29 |
| Underdog | 42–38 | 29–19 |
| Overs–unders | 59–44 | 40–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 15–20 TEX in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 35.