Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Lawrence ButlerBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting1-3
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Butler homered to right (403 feet), Schuemann scored and Urías scored.5–1
- 6McCormick hit sacrifice fly to center, Walker scored.2–1
- 6Langeliers homered to left center (369 feet).2–0
- 1Rooker doubled to left, Kurtz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 62%
- ML ATH +155 / HOU -185
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 64.0%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- HOU -166
- ATH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1448 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +8 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +100 Elo | HOU 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 3024–31 | Road vs home | 33–219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–52 | 50–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 26–44 |
| Underdog | 45–38 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 60–46 | 46–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 12–22 HOU in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 34.