Athletics at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Miguel AndujarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- J.T. GinnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Dubón doubled to left, McCormick scored.7–1
- 9Urías singled to center, Cortes scored, Schuemann to second.7–0
- 9Schuemann singled to left, Langeliers scored and Wynns scored, Cortes to second.6–0
- 4Thomas doubled to center, Wynns scored.4–0
- 4Urshela hit sacrifice fly to left, Rooker scored.3–0
- 1Langeliers homered to left (378 feet).2–0
- 1Andujar homered to right (346 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 57%
- ML ATH +120 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 60.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- HOU -130
- ATH +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 4.0 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | ATH: J.T. Ginn: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +77 Elo | HOU 60.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.315th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 3.97th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 19th of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 33–2211th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149626th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–52 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 26–45 |
| Underdog | 46–38 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 60–47 | 46–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 13–22 HOU in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 35.